The two media-dominant pro-Russian political forces in Serbia – the ruling Progressives and the Student Ticket, along with the minor opposition alt-right – keep telling us that we are throwing our vote away if we vote for someone else, especially the “European Serbia” centrists. So here’s where their voters are throwing their votes – into the funeral pyre of Russia’s epic failure.
The Serbian nationalists fix their hopes on Russia and China “rising up”, so they can ally with them and try a repeat of reclaiming the Serbian world (Greater Serbia), a war goal from the 1990s. For that, Russia ideally needs to physically link up with Serbia – “Russian tanks on the Danube”.
So how’s that been working for them, huh? Serbian media, both the government and the student-aligned (now many of the opposition media united under one ownership in Alpac Capital, which also owns Euronews), are very careful not to talk much about Russian defeats.
“I lost all respect for Russia. I believed they were a great military power, but Ukrainians keep trashing them,” is a line you’ll often hear from Serbian conservatives. Serbian common people value martial prowess – a lot. Most Serbs love a competent soldier or a cop. And Ukrainians proved their mettle.
But that doesn’t fit the dominant narrative. How can Russia help us if they can’t help themselves, we wonder. So our politicians, media, influencers, public figures, and the rest keep nurturing the virtual reality of the Great Powers of Russia and China (that same China dying of old age and pollution).
Any minute now, the EU and NATO will dissolve, Russians will be in Kyiv, and their dreams will come true. Just don’t vote for anyone other than the Progressives and Students – it will make Putin cry.
Social media users are prone to doomism on any issue, so the baseless prophecy that Serbia is destined to launch yet another round of Yugoslav Wars is now common wisdom. The craptastic state in which Serbia is stuck doesn’t physically allow it to wage an offensive war. We made sure of that when we re-elected the rearranged Milošević government in 2012. The floods of 2014 should have been proof enough – this is a mismanaged, impoverished, most polluted country in Europe. Almost all metrics are worse than the continent: workplace-related injuries and deaths, deaths and injuries in traffic, crime rates only rivaled by neighbouring countries, you name it. Poverty and disease among an aged, overworked population are what Serbia already is. Which brings us to the question: is a war even physically possible?
Serbia ISN’T Russia. It doesn’t have any tank columns available to roll into anywhere, while Kosovo will have drones, Javelins in the hundreds and the KFOR international peacekeeping mission. What Serbia also doesn’t have is compulsory military service to provide infantry. The reintroduction of conscription keeps getting postponed for the second year, now set to start next March.
Those graffiti “Kad se vojska na Kosovo vrati” (When the army returns to Kosovo) can be seen, as you are probably aware, all over the country; there are even children’s books on that topic. Those are very unsettling, but for a different reason – they reveal a revanchist society. But let’s hypothesize. So someone assembles a suicide squad (not a very popular prospect here), like they did in the Banjska attack, and rushes into Kosovo hoping not to win but to prove a point or just cause a ruckus over security trading with Westerners or whatever. And it ends real fast…in a crushing Serbian defeat. Videos and pictures of de-turreted T-72s all over the internet and TV. Looks really bad and embarrassing – for Serbs. Humiliation, irreplaceable equipment lost, sanctions guaranteed (Vučić didn’t dare show up at Mladić’s funeral over apprehension of the EU’s reaction). Doesn’t achieve anything but loss. Russia has China, Iran, and North Korea to literally feed it and sustain its war. We have none of those – geography doesn’t allow it. Losing the war in Kosovo and making Serbia a battlefield is what got Milošević out of power, because people finally realized he might pull us into national suicide. The only way for Serbia to actually go to war if Russia (or China) really is on the Danube, physically next to Serbia, and sustain a long war – and a repeat of the Yugoslav Wars would be very long. Therefore, arm and support Ukraine if you want democracy in Serbia.
